MVRV ratio
MVRV (market value to realized value) is an on-chain ratio that divides a coin's market cap by its realized cap — the aggregate price at which every coin last moved on-chain. It measures how much unrealized profit or loss the whole market is sitting on: above 1 the average holder is in profit, below 1 the average holder is underwater.
How it is calculated
MVRV is simply market cap divided by realized cap. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved rather than the current price, so it behaves like an aggregate cost basis. The ratio between the two tells you how stretched price is above what the market actually paid.
How to read it
The ratio is a froth-and-capitulation gauge, not a timing tool. Historically, readings above roughly 3.5 have marked cycle tops — the average coin is sitting on large unrealized profit, so distribution risk is high. Readings below 1 mean the average holder is underwater and have historically marked capitulation bottoms. Most desks watch the direction and extremes, not the exact number.
MVRV vs MVRV Z-score
The MVRV Z-score normalizes the gap between market cap and realized cap by its standard deviation, which flattens noise and makes cycle tops and bottoms cleaner to spot. Plain MVRV is easier to reason about day to day; the Z-score is the version most often used for cycle calls.
Common misreads
MVRV is a market-wide gauge — it says nothing about a single position or the next week. Thresholds drift each cycle as the holder base matures, so a level that marked a top in 2017 may not in this cycle. And bitcoin's MVRV is far more reliable than an altcoin's, where thin realized-cap data distorts the ratio.