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GLOSSARY

MVRV ratio

MVRV (market value to realized value) is an on-chain ratio that divides a coin's market cap by its realized cap — the aggregate price at which every coin last moved on-chain. It measures how much unrealized profit or loss the whole market is sitting on: above 1 the average holder is in profit, below 1 the average holder is underwater.

overvalued · MVRV > 3.5 (top risk) undervalued · MVRV < 1 (capitulation) MVRV = 1
MVRV through a cycle: stretched into the red band above 3.5 near tops, into the green band below 1 near bottoms. Illustrative shape, not live data.

How it is calculated

MVRV is simply market cap divided by realized cap. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved rather than the current price, so it behaves like an aggregate cost basis. The ratio between the two tells you how stretched price is above what the market actually paid.

MVRV = market cap / realized cap # >1 = aggregate unrealized profit · <1 = aggregate unrealized loss

How to read it

The ratio is a froth-and-capitulation gauge, not a timing tool. Historically, readings above roughly 3.5 have marked cycle tops — the average coin is sitting on large unrealized profit, so distribution risk is high. Readings below 1 mean the average holder is underwater and have historically marked capitulation bottoms. Most desks watch the direction and extremes, not the exact number.

MVRV vs MVRV Z-score

The MVRV Z-score normalizes the gap between market cap and realized cap by its standard deviation, which flattens noise and makes cycle tops and bottoms cleaner to spot. Plain MVRV is easier to reason about day to day; the Z-score is the version most often used for cycle calls.

Common misreads

MVRV is a market-wide gauge — it says nothing about a single position or the next week. Thresholds drift each cycle as the holder base matures, so a level that marked a top in 2017 may not in this cycle. And bitcoin's MVRV is far more reliable than an altcoin's, where thin realized-cap data distorts the ratio.

FAQ

What is a good MVRV ratio?
There is no single good number — MVRV is a gauge, not a target. Broadly, readings near or below 1 have historically signalled undervaluation and capitulation, while readings above roughly 3.5 have marked overheated, top-risk conditions. Direction and extremes matter more than the exact value.
What does MVRV above 3 mean?
It means the market's total value is more than three times its aggregate cost basis, so the average holder is sitting on heavy unrealized profit. Historically that has coincided with late-cycle, distribution-heavy phases where the risk of a top rises — though the exact threshold drifts each cycle.
MVRV vs MVRV Z-score — what is the difference?
Plain MVRV is market cap divided by realized cap. The MVRV Z-score normalizes the difference between the two by its standard deviation, which reduces noise and makes long-term tops and bottoms easier to identify. The Z-score is the version most used for cycle-level calls.
Can MVRV be below 1?
Yes. An MVRV below 1 means market cap has fallen beneath realized cap, so the average coin is worth less than the price it last moved at — the whole market is underwater. Historically these periods have coincided with deep bear-market bottoms and capitulation.

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