INDICATOR — RISK FILTER
Toxicity / Blow-off Risk VERIFIED · AVOID FILTER
Coins that look great and are dangerous to enter. High on this board means stretched far above trend, hot volatility, a volume blow-off, and overbought — the setup that dips hardest. Use it to avoid, size down, or widen stops.
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Most toxic — avoid chasing (live)
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Tox toxicity score, higher = more dangerous to chasevs 200d % stretched above the 200-day averagerVol volume vs its own average (1 = normal)RSI above 70 = overboughtCT trending on Crypto-Twitter
How to read a row → BANK · Tox 15 · +574% vs 200d · RSI 98: stretched far above its long-term trend and deeply overbought — the classic blow-off setup that dips hardest. Don't chase it; if you're in, size down and widen the stop. It's a filter, not a short.
What the backtest showed
- The most-toxic decile suffered a −25.8% forward 30-day drawdown vs −20.0% for the least-toxic — 5.7pp deeper, in both regimes.
- It also delivered lower forward return (+0.7% vs +3.1%) and 4.5× worse risk-adjusted return.
- Toxicity = distance above the 200-day average + realized volatility + volume surge + overbought (RSI).
- It is not a short signal: toxic names still drift up short-term on momentum, so shorting them bleeds. The edge is in avoiding, not fading.
How to use it: a coin high here is a poor entry — skip it, or take a smaller size with a wider stop. Cross-check the Leaders and Breakout boards against this one: a leader that is also toxic is a late, crowded chase.