+First time on the top traders desk?
The desk runs its own numbers and publishes its calls next to the account that trades them. The short route:
Smart money concepts v2: chart zones as an entry rule
Verdict: the rule beats its own null. The concepts come from an open library, but its code never enters the calculation: it annotates a chart and therefore looks ahead. Every primitive here is computed from the past alone, and the library stays an oracle in the tests. The zones are the ones the TT Smart Money study draws on the desk's charts; the chart may erase a zone in hindsight, a causal rule cannot, and that gap is pinned by numbers in the tests.
fair value gap return (v2) + channel exit 10dv2
MDS Binance USD-M perp, daily bar · 2020-09-23 → 2026-07-29 · 10 instruments · $100k start · 0.1% per side · funding accrued
final +710.7%
Leader
total+710.7%
cagr+43.0%
max drawdown−56.6%
sharpe0.97
trades886
win rate33.0%
controlnull p95 +593.2%200 seedsnull matches the side mixfirst half +364.0%second half +74.7%
The rules in full
A report field is a tuning knob: every number carries the name of its constant.
| field | rule | constant |
|---|---|---|
| timeframe | daily bar | smc_lab.load_frames |
| entry | fair value gap return (v2) | smc.RULES |
| swing confirmation | 20 bars each side, published at bar +20 | smc.SWING_LEN |
| entry fill | trigger at bar close, order at next open | cross_lab.run_symbol_rule |
| exit | channel exit 10d | cross_lab.EXIT_MENU |
| stop | time exits carry no stop: the clock is the exit | cross_lab.trade_exit |
| trailing | stop lines only: a line never fills better than the bar open | cross_lab.stop_line |
| averaging | none | — |
| order block life | None bars, candle search within None | smc.OB_LIFE / smc.OB_LOOKBACK |
| position size | equal sleeves 1/N, N = 10 | cross_lab.portfolio_run |
| concurrent positions | up to 10, one per instrument | cross_lab.run_symbol_rule |
| sides | long and short, 50.0% of triggers short | smc.rule_* |
| leverage | 1.0 | — |
| costs | 0.1% per side (perp taker 0.05 + slippage 0.05), charged on both sides | cross_lab.PERP_COST_PER_SIDE |
| funding | accrued every day held from the venue's stamps: long pays, short receives | bt_wf.carry_pct |
| universe | ADAUSDT, AVAXUSDT, BNBUSDT, BTCUSDT, DOGEUSDT, ETHUSDT, LINKUSDT, LTCUSDT, SOLUSDT, XRPUSDT | smc_lab.SYMBOLS |
| window and why | 2020-09-23 — 2026-07-29: 2018-01-01 was requested; the basket intersects on dates, so the measured span is printed | smc_lab.START/END |
Yearly return
| year | 2020 (09-12) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (01-07) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| return | +19.7% | +468.7% | −39.2% | +74.0% | +59.2% | −33.3% | +6.0% |
Latest trades
| instrument | side | slice | entry → exit | dates | return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRPUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 1.0733 → 1.0613 | 2026-07-30 → 2026-07-31 | +0.93% |
| AVAXUSDT | LONG | 100% | 6.402 → 6.383 | 2026-07-28 → 2026-07-31 | −0.51% |
| ADAUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 0.1553 → 0.1681 | 2026-07-28 → 2026-07-31 | −8.35% |
| ADAUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 0.1736 → 0.1775 | 2026-07-22 → 2026-07-22 | −2.44% |
| LTCUSDT | LONG | 100% | 47.34 → 45.75 | 2026-07-21 → 2026-07-29 | −3.65% |
| BNBUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 571.58 → 580.2 | 2026-07-21 → 2026-07-30 | −1.58% |
| SOLUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 76.34 → 72.83 | 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-31 | +4.43% |
| XRPUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 1.0922 → 1.1297 | 2026-07-19 → 2026-07-21 | −3.61% |
| LINKUSDT | LONG | 100% | 7.991 → 8.206 | 2026-07-13 → 2026-07-28 | +2.26% |
| BTCUSDT | LONG | 100% | 63749.9 → 63567 | 2026-07-13 → 2026-07-28 | −0.71% |
| ADAUSDT | LONG | 100% | 0.1745 → 0.1605 | 2026-07-08 → 2026-07-13 | −8.11% |
| ETHUSDT | LONG | 100% | 1798.84 → 1861.68 | 2026-07-07 → 2026-07-31 | +3.07% |
| XRPUSDT | LONG | 100% | 1.1566 → 1.0678 | 2026-07-06 → 2026-07-13 | −7.89% |
| SOLUSDT | LONG | 100% | 71.36 → 76.24 | 2026-06-29 → 2026-07-12 | +6.48% |
| LTCUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 42.14 → 44.65 | 2026-06-28 → 2026-07-03 | −6.05% |
| SOLUSDT | LONG | 100% | 71.9 → 66.89 | 2026-06-23 → 2026-06-24 | −7.14% |
| BNBUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 588.35 → 579.24 | 2026-06-21 → 2026-07-05 | +1.48% |
| LTCUSDT | LONG | 100% | 45.67 → 42.93 | 2026-06-17 → 2026-06-23 | −6.18% |
| LINKUSDT | LONG | 100% | 8.271 → 7.761 | 2026-06-17 → 2026-06-23 | −6.38% |
| BTCUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 65702.1 → 65775 | 2026-06-15 → 2026-06-15 | −0.31% |
| DOGEUSDT | LONG | 100% | 0.08476 → 0.08178 | 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-23 | −3.76% |
| XRPUSDT | LONG | 100% | 1.1368 → 1.1184 | 2026-06-10 → 2026-06-23 | −1.71% |
| ADAUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 0.1651 → 0.1838 | 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15 | −11.50% |
| BNBUSDT | SHORT | 100% | 604.82 → 617.63 | 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15 | −2.29% |
| BNBUSDT | LONG | 100% | 693.46 → 628.42 | 2026-06-02 → 2026-06-03 | −9.57% |
Every pair
Four rules against shared exits. Each pair carries its own null: random entries through the same engine, same exit, same side mix.
| rule | exit | total | sharpe | dd | pf | trades | random p95 | beats random | knob | shipped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fair value gap return (v2) | channel exit 10d | +710.7% | 0.97 | −56.6% | 1.87 | 886 | +559.1% | yes | 1.00 | yes — the report's leader |
| any zone return (v2) | channel exit 10d | +617.7% | 0.93 | −59.5% | 1.88 | 906 | +674.9% | no | 0.94 | no — does not beat its own random entry (p95) |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | channel exit 10d | +560.9% | 0.90 | −54.8% | 1.97 | 562 | +437.1% | yes | 0.23 | no — lives at a single swing value: stability 0.23 against a 0.6 threshold |
| any zone return (v2) | zone stop 40 | +677.9% | 0.83 | −76.4% | 2.00 | 898 | +573.0% | yes | 0.82 | no — the second half of the window loses (−39.2%) |
| fair value gap return (v2) | zone stop 40 | +584.7% | 0.79 | −79.7% | 1.94 | 905 | +701.6% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | time 40 | +149.0% | 0.68 | −87.7% | 1.47 | 336 | +513.1% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | time 20 | +214.1% | 0.64 | −90.8% | 1.39 | 665 | +173.6% | yes | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | chandelier 22/3 | +117.2% | 0.56 | −46.6% | 1.21 | 997 | +177.6% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | zone stop 20 | +120.9% | 0.53 | −58.6% | 1.30 | 1137 | +201.7% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | time 20 | +101.2% | 0.53 | −94.5% | 1.34 | 671 | +314.2% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | time 20 | +68.6% | 0.53 | −92.5% | 1.45 | 486 | +443.3% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | zone stop 20 | +110.6% | 0.51 | −61.3% | 1.34 | 1123 | +181.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | zone stop 40 | +107.3% | 0.47 | −47.5% | 1.78 | 575 | +869.1% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | time 10 | +83.8% | 0.46 | −49.7% | 1.16 | 957 | +218.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | chandelier 22/3 | +73.0% | 0.45 | −47.4% | 1.21 | 1038 | +277.7% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | time 40 | +48.8% | 0.44 | −26.2% | 1.00 | 85 | +75.8% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | zone stop 20 | +72.7% | 0.42 | −61.4% | 1.40 | 665 | +175.2% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | time 40 | −34.7% | 0.41 | −95.8% | 1.36 | 423 | +1212.1% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | time 40 | −57.9% | 0.32 | −97.1% | 1.31 | 421 | +2559.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | chandelier 22/3 | +25.0% | 0.28 | −49.2% | 1.05 | 617 | +164.7% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | time 10 | +9.5% | 0.21 | −47.1% | 1.15 | 641 | +111.5% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | zone stop 40 | +10.2% | 0.20 | −25.6% | 1.20 | 91 | +48.7% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | time 10 | +5.4% | 0.18 | −52.0% | 1.10 | 975 | +63.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| gap return with the trend (v2) | trail 5 atr | −21.7% | 0.14 | −76.9% | 0.90 | 242 | +45.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | channel exit 10d | +1.3% | 0.07 | −16.3% | 0.89 | 92 | +58.4% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | zone stop 20 | −0.0% | 0.04 | −15.8% | 0.92 | 92 | +22.8% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | chandelier 22/3 | −1.0% | -0.03 | −11.2% | 1.05 | 94 | +46.3% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| fair value gap return (v2) | trail 5 atr | −49.0% | -0.04 | −78.4% | 1.06 | 258 | +1.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| any zone return (v2) | trail 5 atr | −50.2% | -0.10 | −79.0% | 1.07 | 259 | +14.0% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | time 20 | −18.4% | -0.17 | −31.9% | 0.73 | 90 | +47.0% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | time 10 | −17.2% | -0.26 | −22.2% | 0.74 | 92 | +19.9% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
| order block return (v2) | trail 5 atr | −29.9% | -0.30 | −44.1% | 0.73 | 77 | +13.5% | no | — | not assessed: did not reach the finals |
The knob: swing length
Swing length sets both the labelling and the confirmation delay: the longer it is, the later the desk learns about structure. Stability is the worst-to-best sharpe ratio across neighbouring lengths: a rule that lives at one value is a fit, and that has to be visible as a number.
fair value gap return (v2) + channel exit 10d — stability 1.00 against the 0.6 threshold
| swing | total | sharpe | dd | trades | pf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +710.7% | 0.97 | −56.6% | 886 | 1.87 |
| 15 | +710.7% | 0.97 | −56.6% | 886 | 1.87 |
| 20 | +710.7% | 0.97 | −56.6% | 886 | 1.87 |
| 30 | +710.7% | 0.97 | −56.6% | 886 | 1.87 |
any zone return (v2) + channel exit 10d — stability 0.94 against the 0.6 threshold
| swing | total | sharpe | dd | trades | pf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +545.1% | 0.89 | −61.5% | 949 | 1.77 |
| 15 | +507.7% | 0.87 | −63.9% | 923 | 1.80 |
| 20 | +617.7% | 0.93 | −59.5% | 906 | 1.88 |
| 30 | +611.7% | 0.93 | −59.8% | 898 | 1.85 |
gap return with the trend (v2) + channel exit 10d — stability 0.23 against the 0.6 threshold
| swing | total | sharpe | dd | trades | pf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +610.4% | 0.92 | −57.0% | 592 | 1.81 |
| 15 | +994.8% | 1.07 | −44.1% | 566 | 2.27 |
| 20 | +560.9% | 0.90 | −54.8% | 562 | 1.97 |
| 30 | +19.5% | 0.25 | −36.6% | 507 | 1.18 |
any zone return (v2) + zone stop 40 — stability 0.82 against the 0.6 threshold
| swing | total | sharpe | dd | trades | pf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +350.9% | 0.70 | −87.5% | 922 | 1.83 |
| 15 | +351.1% | 0.69 | −85.6% | 918 | 1.82 |
| 20 | +677.9% | 0.83 | −76.4% | 898 | 2.00 |
| 30 | +729.4% | 0.84 | −74.7% | 902 | 1.96 |