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The desk runs its own numbers and publishes its calls next to the account that trades them. The short route:
by Sarah Connor
How crypto and TradFi converge
Crypto is becoming financial infrastructure while most people still trade it like a casino. The gap between those two facts is closing, and the crypto × TradFi convergence is where it happens.
- The desk's frame: crypto is becoming financial infrastructure while most people still trade it like a casino, and the crypto × TradFi convergence is where that gap closes.
- The line is dissolving from both directions (banks issuing stablecoins, asset managers tokenizing funds, exchanges getting licensed), with each side capturing a different layer.
- Banks own trust and distribution; crypto owns settlement and programmability. The whole game is who captures which layer.
- Distribution beats everything: when trusted banks push crypto into everyday banking apps, crypto-native venues that own neither trust nor distribution risk being disintermediated.
- The TT desk call: ETFs already converted crypto from an access problem into an allocation decision for trillions. Favor the layers that capture trust, distribution or settlement, and watch where banks and crypto stop competing and start plugging into each other.
The convergence from both sides
The line between crypto and traditional finance is dissolving from both directions: banks issuing stablecoins, asset managers tokenizing funds, exchanges getting licensed. Each side captures a different layer.
Banks own trust and distribution. Crypto owns settlement and programmability. The game is who captures which layer.
Distribution beats everything
When trusted banks push crypto into everyday banking apps, access moves from specialist exchanges to bank rails and adoption steps up. Crypto-native venues that own neither trust nor distribution risk being disintermediated.
- Bank rails: distribution moving to trusted apps
- Custody & compliance: the institutional gate
- Tokenized finance: a regulated cash leg for on-chain settlement
The bridge is regulated products
ETFs converted crypto from an access problem into an allocation decision for trillions. Market-structure rules and regulated products are the bridge institutions cross, and the pipeline front-runs the flow.
The TT desk thoughts
Trade the gap between crypto-as-casino and crypto-as-infrastructure. Favor the layers that capture trust, distribution or settlement, and watch where banks and crypto stop competing and start plugging into each other.
What would change our mind
Banks building the rails in-house instead of plugging into existing ones. The thesis favours the layers that capture trust, distribution and settlement precisely because incumbents have chosen to rent them; in-sourcing at scale removes the toll.